work / 06 of 06 / published analysis
Transfer Portal
How well do Group of Five players hold up after transferring to the Power Five? Roughly 530 transfers from 2022 to 2024, graded by PFF, analyzed by position group.
The question
Every offseason the transfer portal moves hundreds of players up a level, from the Group of Five to the Power Five. Coaches and fans argue about whether production at the lower level carries over. This piece answers with data instead of anecdotes: does a player's PFF grade before the move predict the grade after it, and does the answer depend on position?
What I did
- Collected and cleaned a dataset of roughly 530 players who moved from the Group of Five to the Power Five between 2022 and 2024, with PFF grades on both sides of the move.
- Ran regression and correlation analysis by position group to see where the jump is hardest and where prior production holds up.
- Built the visualizations and wrote the piece for a general college football audience.
~530transfers in the dataset
3seasons, 2022 to 2024
PFFgrades before and after the move, by position group